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Silver Bullet Poll in Virginia's 7th District
Written by Site Blog on June 18, 2014, 03:30 PM
The survey has a sample size of 822 2014 primary voters in Virginia’s 7th Congressional District.  The margin of error is +3.4% with a 95% confidence interval.
Brat won 71% of voters who said they support the Tea Party, but lost among those who oppose the Tea Party or who have no opinion about it.  The fact that so many voters (55%) support the Tea Party is what allowed Brat to win in spite of that.
Voters who said they saw very few advertisements from David Brat were actually more likely to support Brat.  Unaffiliated voters were less likely to have seen advertisements from Brat than Republicans, so a possible explanation for the odd, inverse relationship between advertisements seen from Brat and support for Brat could be that the campaigns were not targeting unaffiliated voters. Those voters had a propensity against supporting Cantor but immigration reform is not a likely culprit, only 7% of unaffiliated voters cited that as the main reason for not supporting Cantor.  These unaffiliated voters made up 24% of the electorate and broke for Brat 2.3:1.  
Democrats made up just 3% of the electorate so it is not possible that they were a driving factor in the results.
26% of voters who supported Brat changed their mind in the last two weeks, so there is evidence of a significant last-minute shift in the electorate.  Combine this with a lack of accounting for the large number of unaffiliated voters who pushed turnout higher and the polling misses can be almost fully explained, if not fully justified.
Cantor's position on immigration reform was not a significant factor for 48% of Brat's supporters and was only the main factor for 12% of Brat's supporters.   

To see the full results from the poll click here.

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